UNS vesti

07. 09. 2011.

Izvor: Wikileaks

Reakcija srpske javnosti na hapšenje Karadžića prigušena

PREDMET: REAKCIJA SRPSKE JAVNOSTI NA HAPŠENjE KARADžIĆA PRIGUŠENA REF: BEOGRAD 718

Poreklo: ambasada u Beogradu (Srbija)
Vreme depeše: četvrtak, 24. juli 2008, 18:57
Klasifikacija: nije poverljiv podatak//samo za službenu upotrebu
Izvor:http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/07/08BELGRADE744.html

Istorijat: prvi put objavljeno u petak, 26. avgusta, 02:34

Rezime ------- ¶1. (SBU) Reakcija javnosti na hapšenje Radovana Karadžića 21. jula, optuženika Međunarodnog krivičnog suda za bivšu Jugoslaviju (ICTY), ograničila se, do sada, na nekoliko manjih demonstracija koje su organizovale ultra desničarske grupe i članovi Radikalne stranke, iako su hiljade fudbalskih navijača uzvikivale Karadžićevo ime na nedavnoj utakmici. Nevladine organizacije za ljudska prava kažu da javnost razume da je hapšenje neophodni korak u procesu evropskih integracija. Izveštavanje medija bilo je obimno i tipično za sam karakter medijskih kuća, s tim da su se nezavisni mediji usredsređivali na razloge hapšenja Karadžića, a tabloidi ga uznosili u zvezde. Nećemo, po svoj prilici, videti nikakve masovne demonstracije, čak i ako javnost ne podržava hapšenje u potpunosti. Javno priznanje koje Srbija mora da dobije i spremnost vlade da obavi ovakvo politički teško hapšenje ohrabrujući su. Kraj rezimea.

Manji protesti desničarksih grupa ----------------------------------- ¶2. (U) Reakcije javnosti na hapšenje Karadžića do sada nisu bile snažne. Organizovano je nekoliko protesta nacionalističkih elemenata (reftel). Rano 22. jula, odmah nakon objave hapšenja, policija je razbila protest desetak mladića na Trgu republike. Još jedna slična grupa marširala je iz pravca Specijalnog suda.

¶3. (U) Ultradesničarska grupa Obraz organizovala je proteste 22. i 23. jula na Trbu republike u Beogradu, kojem su prisustvovali Karadžićec brat Luka i niz zvaničnika Srpske radikalne stranke. Svaka od ovih demonstracija privukla je 200-300 protestanata koji su nosili majice s likom Karadžića, haškog saoptuženika Ratka Mladića i haškog tuženika i vođe Radikala Vojislava Šešelja. Protestanti su nosili transparente pozivajući Predsednika Borisa Tadića (Demokratska stranka—DS) da izvrši samoubistvo. Policija nam je rekla da su intervenisali 22. jula nakon što su bili svedoci divljačkog uništavanja obližnjeg restorana i čuli eksploziju ( po izveštajima štampe, buktinje i petarde). Protestanti su 23. jula spalili zastavu Socijalističke partije (SPS) i bacali pivske flaše na reportere. SRS je najavila da će organizovati svoj protest uveče 24. jula.

¶4. (U) Dok su demonstracije bile manjeg obima, na fudbalskoj utakmici Partizana, 23. jula, većina od 15.000 navijača uzvikivali su ime Karadžića, a ne ime njihovog tima. Pevali su, takođe, “Ubij se i spasi Srbiju, Borise Tadiću” i spalili su zastave DS-a i Liberalno demokratske partije. (Komentar: “navijači” fudbalskih klubova su, takođe, notorni nasilnici za iznajmljivanje. Protestant koji je poginuo u ambasadi tokom napada 21. februara bio je veličan kao Partizanov “navijač”, a poznato je da se fudbalske utakmice pretvaraju u proteste protiv aktualnih događanja. Srpska policija zadužena za demonstracije redovno se mobiliše po celom gradu tokom večeri kada se organizuje fudbalska utakmica. Kraj komentara.)

Verovatno bez velike reakcije ---------------------- ¶5. (SBU) Biljana Kovačević Vučo iz Komiteta pravnika za ljudska prava (YUCOM) predvidela nam je 23. jula da hapšenje neće izazvati demonstracije većeg obima. Sonja Biserko iz Helsinškog odbora za ljudska prava u Srbiji složila se s njenom procenom objasnivši da su veliki izlivi ultra-nacionalizma završeni – “s njima je gotovo nakon reakcije na Kosovo”. Biserko je izjavila da se hapšenje verovatno dogodilo kao rezultat međunarodnog pritiska, a ne domaće želje da se suoči s prošlošću. “Ljudi nisu manje nacionalistički nastrojeni, ali znaju koji su im prioriteti”. Ljudi su orjentisani prema evropskoj budućnosti, a ne prema prošlosti, rekla je.

¶6. (SBU) Kovačević-Vučo je izjavila da na vladi leži odgovornost da pokaže da vodi novu politiku iskrenog sučeljavanja s prošlošću i izbegne ambivalentni stav koji su zauzimale prošle vlade kada su Milošević i Šešelj otišli za Hag. Ovaj put, vlada ima zadatak da prikaže Karadžića kao ratnog zločinca i objasni srpskoj javnosti da ga treba krivično goniti i zašto, rekla je.

Obimno izveštavanje medija ------------------------ ¶7. (U) Domaći mediji su obimno izveštavali o hapšenju još od njegovog objavljivanja. B92 i Fox TV odmah su prekinuli svoje večernje programe i emitovali višesatne specijalne emisije o hapšenju Radovana Karadžića, u kojima su prikazani kratki dokumentarci o Karadžiću, reakcije niza javnih ličnosti, kao i izveštaji iz Specijlanog suda gde se Karadžić nalazio. B92 je emitovao specijalni program skoro celi dan 22. jula i 23. jula, uključujući dokumentarne filmove napravljene odmah posle revolucije 5. oktobra BELGRADE 00000744 002 OF 002, snimke opsade Sarajeva i informacije o Karadžićevoj ulozi u tome. Beogradska TV stanica Studio B pripremila je specijalne ponoćne vesti i vanredni program vesti u 1 i 2 sata ujutro. Za raliku od toga, nacionalni emiter RTS nastavio je sa svojom redovnom programskom šemom izveštavajući o hapšenju samo tokom redovne emisije vesti.

¶8. (U) Sve važnije dnevne novine su 22. jula objavile događaj na svojim naslovnim stranama, kao i reakcije domaćih i stranih zvaničnika i detalje iz Karadžićeve biografije. Dnevne novine su nastavile da objavljuju događaj na naslovnim stranama 23. i 24. jula, izveštavajući vrlo obimno. Izveštaji u svim većim dnevnim novinama bili su činjenični i direktni, mada su tabloidi bili preplavljeni detaljima o hapšenju i mestima gde se krio. Pro-radikalni Glas Javnosti i Kurir objavili su intervjue i izjave Karadžićevih najvećih pristalica.

Uticaj medijskog izveštavanja po svoj prilici slab ----------------------------------- ¶9. (SBU) Srđan Bogosavljević, šef agencije za istraživanje javnog mnjenja Strategic Marketing, rekao je da izveštavanje medija, čak i sa slikovitim snimcima zverstava počinjenih u Bosni, neće ganuti javnost koja gaji veliko nepoverenje prema Haškom tribunalu. Višegodišnja istraživanja Strategic Marketing pokazala su da većina ljudi ne želi da vidi ovakve snimke i veruje da su ona jednostrana – samo su Srbi snimani dok su muslimani činili zverstva koja nisu zabeležena kamerom. Štaviše, gledaoci B92 već su bili otvoreni za suočavanje s prošlošću i verovatno su videli snimke ranije.

¶10. (SBU) Bogosavljević je rekao da bi bilo značajno ako bi RTS, sa svojom širom i manje obrazovanom publikom, prikazao takve snimke, ali sumnjao je da bi vlada bila u stanju da ubedi mrežu (još uvek je kontroliše Aleksandar Tijanić, kojeg je imenovao bivši premijer Vojislav Koštunica) da u bliskoj budućnosti podrži novu partijsku liniju. Tabloidi su, u međuvremenu, prikazivali Karadžića kao lik koji pobuđuje simpatije.

Komentar ------- ¶11. (SBU) Malo je verovatno da će SRS i DSS, koji sada nemaju kontrolu nad državnim resursima, biti u stanju da organizuju bilo kakve masovne demonstracije kao što su bile one u februaru protiv nezavisnosti Kosova. Međutim, nepostojanje snažnog javnog protesta nije nužno signal da srpska javnost podržava akciju vlade. Dok građani Srbije možda nisu u potpunosti spremni da se suoče s prošlošću, ohrabruje to što priznaju da je vreme da se okrenu budućnosti – i da sada imaju vladu koja je spremna to i da učini. Kraj komentara.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000744

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO ASEC SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PUBLIC REACTION TO KARADZIC ARREST MUTED

REF: BELGRADE 718

Summary
-------

¶1. (SBU) Public reaction to the July 21 arrest of Radovan Karadzic,
indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former
Yugoslavia (ICTY), thus far has been confined to a few small
demonstrations by ultra-right groups and Radical Party members,
although thousands of soccer fans cheered Karadzic at a recent game.
Human rights NGOs say the public now understands that the arrest is
a necessary step in the process of EU integration. Media coverage
has been extensive and typical of the character of the media outlet,
with independent media focusing on the reasons for Karadzic's arrest
and the tabloids lionizing him. We will likely not see any mass
demonstrations, even if the public does not fully support the
arrest. The public recognition that Serbia must face forward and
the government's willingness to effect this politically difficult
arrest are encouraging. End Summary.

Small Protests by Right-Wing Groups
-----------------------------------

¶2. (U) Public reactions to the arrest of Karadzic have thus far not
been strong. There have been a few protests from nationalist
elements (reftel). Early on July 22, immediately following the
announcement of the arrest, police broke up a protest by about a
dozen youth in Republic Square. Another similar group marched across
from the Special Court.

¶3. (U) The ultra-right group Obraz organized protests on July 22 and
23 in Belgrade's Republic Square, with Karadzic's brother Luka and
various Serbian Radical Party (SRS) officials in attendance. Each
demonstration attracted 200-300 protestors, sporting t-shirts with
the images of both Karadzic, fellow Hague indictee Ratko Mladic, and
Hague defendant and Radical leader Vojislav Seselj. Protestors
carried signs urging President Boris Tadic (Democratic Party--DS) to
commit suicide. Police told us they intervened on July 22 after
witnessing vandalism of nearby restaurants and hearing an explosion
(flares and firecrackers, according to press reports). Protestors
on July 23 burned the Socialist Party (SPS) flag and threw beer
bottles at reporters. The SRS has announced that it will organize
its own protest the evening of July 24.

¶4. (U) While the demonstrations have been small, at a July 23
Partisan soccer game the majority of the 15,000 fans spent the first
half hour of the game cheering Karadzic rather than their team.
They also chanted "Kill yourself and save Serbia, Boris Tadic," and
burned DS and Liberal Democratic Party flags. (Comment: Soccer
club "fans" are also notorious thugs for hire. The rioter who died
in the Embassy during the February 21 attack was eulogized as a
Partizan "fan," and soccer games have been known to morph into
protests of the events of the day. Serbian riot police are
regularly mobilized throughout the city on the night of a soccer
match. End Comment.)

No Big Reaction Likely
----------------------

¶5. (SBU) Biljana Kovacevic-Vuco of the Lawyer's Committee on Human
Rights (YUCOM) predicted to us on July 23 the arrest would not
provoke any greater demonstrations. Sonja Biserko of the Helsinki
Committee for Human Rights in Serbia shared the same assessment,
explaining that large displays of ultra-nationalism were over --
"they were done with this after the reaction to Kosovo." Biserko
said the arrest had probably happened due to international pressure
rather than a domestic desire to confront the past. "The people are
not less nationalistic, but they know where their priorities are."
People were oriented toward a European future rather than the past,
she said.

¶6. (SBU) Kovacevic-Vuco said the government had a responsibility to
show that it had a new policy of sincerely facing up to the past and
avoid the ambivalent stance past governments had taken when
Milosevic and Seselj went to the Hague. This time it was up to the
government to portray Karadzic as a war criminal and tell the
Serbian public that he should be prosecuted and why, she said.

Extensive Media Coverage
------------------------

¶7. (U) Local media have been covering the arrest extensively since
it was announced. B92 and Fox TV immediately interrupted their
evening programs and started special programs on the arrest of
Radovan Karadzic, which lasted several hours and included short
documentaries on Karadzic, reactions by various public figures, and
coverage of the Special Court where Karadzic was held. B92
continued with a special program almost all day July 22 and July 23,
including documentaries produced in the wake of the October 5th

BELGRADE 00000744 002 OF 002


revolution, with footage of the siege of Sarajevo and information on
Karadzic's role in it. Belgrade TV station Studio B prepared a
special midnight news and non-regular news programs at 1 and 2 am.
National broadcaster RTS, by contrast, continued with its regular
program schedule, reporting on the arrest only during the regular
news program.

¶8. (U) All major dailies on July 22 carried the story on their front
pages and published the reactions of local and foreign officials, as
well as details from Karadzic's bio. Dailies on July 23 and 24
continued to feature the story on their front pages and with very
extensive coverage. The reports in all major dailies were mostly
factual and straightforward, though the tabloids were consumed with
the details of his arrest and where he had been living. Pro-Radical
Glas Javnosti and Kurir carried interviews and statements by
Karadzic's biggest supporters.

Impact of Media Coverage Likely Low
-----------------------------------

¶9. (SBU) Srdjan Bogosavljevic, head of the polling firm Strategic
Marketing, said the media coverage, even the vivid footage of
atrocities committed in Bosnia, would not move a public that viewed
the ICTY with great distrust. Strategic Marketing's surveys over
the years had shown that most people did not want to see the footage
and believed it was one-sided -- only Serbs were filmed while
Muslims were committing horrific acts off camera. Moreover, B92's
audience was already open to facing the past and had likely seen the
footage before.

¶10. (SBU) Bogosavljevic said it would be significant if RTS with its
wider and less-educated audience would show such footage, but he did
not believe that the government would be able to get the network
(still controlled by former PM Kostunica appointee Aleksandar
Tijanic) to support the new party line in the near future. The
tabloids, meanwhile, were showing Karadzic as a sympathetic figure.

Comment
-------

¶11. (SBU) It is unlikely that the SRS and DSS, now lacking control
of state resources, will be able to organize any mass demonstrations
such as the ones in February to protest Kosovo independence. The
lack of strong public outcry, however, is not necessarily a signal
that the Serbian public supports the government's action. While
Serbian citizens may not be fully ready to confront the past, it is
encouraging that they recognize it is time to face the future -- and
that they now have a government willing to do so. End Comment.